The ‘tech singularity’ – real or not?

Neil has kindly agreed to talk to us about the so-called ‘technological singularity’ (or just singularity), which is the hypothesis that the invention of artificial superintelligence (ASI) will abruptly trigger runaway technological growth, resulting in unfathomable changes to human civilization.
According to this hypothesis, an upgradable intelligent agent (such as a computer running software-based artificial general intelligence) would enter a “runaway reaction” of self-improvement cycles, with each new and more intelligent generation appearing more and more rapidly, causing an intelligence explosion and resulting in a powerful superintelligence that would, qualitatively, far surpass all human intelligence.
In the 2010s, public figures such as Stephen Hawking and Elon Musk expressed concern that full artificial intelligence could result in human extinction.
The consequences of the singularity and its potential benefit or harm to the human race have been intensely debated – so let’s see if the premises used in the arguments really stand up to close analysis, or whether it’s just apocalyptic hysteria.

A gold coin donation towards the cost of the Meetup is appreciated.